Russia’s currency strategy, US dollar dominance, and BRICS trade settlement trends have become central to global financial discussions. Recent policy signals indicate that Russia is evaluating a potential return to the US dollar settlement system as part of a broader economic recalibration involving the United States. This move matters because it connects directly to de-dollarization efforts, global energy trade, ongoing sanctions, and the future direction of BRICS financial cooperation.
Since 2022, Russia has cut back heavily on using the US dollar after sanctions and being removed from the SWIFT system. Trade with China and India has mostly shifted to local currencies, with reports suggesting that up to 90% of some trade routes now happen without the dollar. Across BRICS economies, local currency settlement is estimated at approximately 60–67% of intra-bloc trade, marking a structural shift from pre-2022 patterns. However, the US dollar still accounts for roughly 88–89% of global foreign exchange transactions, maintaining its position as the world’s primary reserve and settlement currency.
Any Russian move back toward dollar-based settlement would represent a measurable policy reversal. A re-entry into dollar clearing systems could expand Russia’s access to global liquidity, deepen foreign exchange markets, and potentially reduce transaction friction in commodity trade. Energy markets remain predominantly dollar-priced, including oil, LNG, and major raw materials. Reintegrating into this framework would align Russian exports with prevailing global pricing mechanisms.
Energy cooperation forms a core component of the potential economic realignment. Russia remains one of the world’s largest producers of natural gas, oil, nickel, palladium, and titanium materials critical for aerospace, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing. Expanded cross-border investment in offshore drilling, LNG infrastructure, and strategic mineral extraction would have implications for supply chains and capital flows. Commodity benchmarks could respond to any structural expansion of long-term dollar-denominated contracts.
For BRICS, the implications are strategic rather than symbolic. The group makes up around 35% of global GDP and handles more than $1 trillion in trade each year. Members have been gradually moving toward alternative payment systems and reducing reliance on the dollar, but progress hasn’t been equal across all countries. If Russia were to pivot back to dollar settlement, it wouldn’t derail de-dollarization altogether. But it could dampen momentum and subtly alter the power balance within the bloc. Currency diversification still depends on individual country policies and specific trade partnerships, not a single unified BRICS approach.
For the United States, dollar re-engagement would reinforce the currency’s central role in global trade finance. The US Treasury market remains the deepest and most liquid sovereign bond market globally, and central banks continue to hold substantial dollar reserves. Increased energy-linked dollar settlement could strengthen demand for dollar liquidity in commodity markets.
Several Indicators
Markets would likely monitor several indicators in response to any confirmed shift:
- Changes in Russia’s share of dollar-denominated exports
- Movements in the ruble’s exchange volatility
- Expansion of US–Russia energy joint ventures
- Adjustments in BRICS settlement ratios
- SWIFT reconnection status and sanctions policy revisions
Right now, these conversations are still at the policy stage and come with conditions attached. Any real shift would depend on how diplomacy unfolds, whether sanctions are eased, and if regulators across countries sign off. Execution would require formal financial system reintegration and political alignment across multiple jurisdictions.
The broader trend remains clear: while de-dollarization has accelerated in recent years, the US dollar continues to dominate global trade, commodities pricing, and foreign exchange markets. If Russia does move back toward dollar settlements, it could reshape energy trade flows, influence BRICS’ currency direction, and impact global capital movements for years ahead.