China–India export patterns: Data highlights on market shifts and global trade pressures
India’s export performance in October 2025 presents a mixed picture marked by one strong sector overshadowed by widespread weakness across the broader export basket. Electronics exports grew 19% in the month, driven primarily by smartphones, which alone generated $2.4 billion in shipments. Apple iPhones contributed $1.6 billion, accounting for 40% of total electronics exports. Despite this surge, the overall export scenario reflects significant pressures, particularly from intensifying Chinese competition and global tariff shifts that are reshaping trade flows.
The data indicates that outside of electronics, major export categories suffered sharp declines. Engineering goods, one of India’s largest export segments, contracted 16.7% to $9.37 billion. Petroleum product exports fell 10.5% to $3.95 billion, while pharmaceuticals slipped 5.2% to $2.49 billion. Traditional labour-intensive sectors also weakened: gems and jewellery declined 29.5%, organic and inorganic chemicals were down 21%, and ready-made garments contracted 12.9%. Cotton yarn and handloom products fell 13.3%, rice exports dropped 16.5%, and plastic and linoleum products decreased 21.6%. Overall, the top ten export categories fell 12.6% year-on-year, sliding from $31.8 billion in October 2024 to $27.8 billion in October 2025.
Total merchandise exports declined from $38.98 billion to $34.38 billion. Even when accounting for services, total exports slipped to $72.89 billion. Analysts attribute this downturn to global demand moderation, logistical constraints, and tariff pressures—particularly the phased 50% duty imposed by the United States starting August 2025. These measures have weighed heavily on India’s export performance in key markets, amplifying the impact of global economic headwinds.
China’s export strategy plays a central role in India’s challenges. Multiple major destinations—including the United States, UAE, Italy, Germany, Australia, Brazil, and South Korea—recorded reduced imports from India in October. Analysts point to China’s persistent practice of exporting goods at ultra-competitive prices, often below production cost, creating what many refer to as “dumping.” This strategy allows Chinese goods to gain market share at the expense of competitors. Recent tariff changes further amplify this effect; for instance, the reduction of US tariffs on certain Chinese products, such as lowering fentanyl-related duties from 20% to 10%, indirectly strengthens China’s position in sectors linked to electronics components.
Comparative data for October shows India losing ground across several traditional markets even as China expands its footprint globally. China’s exports to Europe, Australia, and Africa strengthened, while its reliance on the US market declined with an 18% year-on-year fall. The diversification of China’s export destinations is evident: in Southeast Asia, demand is rising for Chinese machine tools and automobile components; Africa is importing construction equipment and green technologies; and Latin America is increasing purchases of Chinese electric vehicles, fertilisers, and electronics.
Globally, concerns about China’s pricing power and industrial strategy have triggered pushback. The US, India, Mexico, and Brazil together initiated 79 anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese goods in the first half of 2025, according to WTO data. Analysts warn that countries relying heavily on imported Chinese manufacturing risk gradual “deindustrialisation,” especially when Chinese investments focus on assembly rather than technology or knowledge transfer. Countries such as Brazil have begun responding proactively to these structural risks.
Trade imbalances highlight the depth of China’s influence. Germany is projected to record a trade deficit of €87 billion with China in 2025, surpassing previous records, according to forecasts from Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI). Despite German efforts to diversify supply chains, particularly for critical inputs like semiconductors and rare earths, China regained its position as Germany’s largest trading partner in early 2025.
For India, the electronics sector remains an outlier of strength. From April to October 2025, electronics exports rose 37.82% to $26.28 billion, significantly narrowing the gap with petroleum exports versus the previous year. Smartphone exports were momentarily lower in August and September due to strong domestic demand during the festive season, but still remained higher than last year, with September shipments rising 100% year-on-year. If current trends continue, electronics may surpass petroleum as India’s second-largest export category in the coming years.
However, the broader picture indicates that growth in a single sector cannot offset declines elsewhere. India’s traditional export strengths—in engineering goods, textiles, gems and jewellery, chemicals, and agricultural products—are being challenged by both cyclical factors and China’s long-term strategic moves in global trade. As China deepens its presence across multiple regions with competitive pricing and targeted industrial expansion, India faces increasing pressure to enhance competitiveness, support vulnerable sectors, and diversify export markets.
India’s export performance in October 2025 underscores the need for a comprehensive strategy that strengthens domestic manufacturing, improves cost competitiveness, addresses tariff vulnerabilities, and equips exporters to counter China’s expanding global footprint. Electronics may offer short-term resilience, but sustainable export growth will require a broader revival across multiple sectors of the economy.
